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Japan's China Diplomacy
Organizer: Saadia M. Pekkanen, University of Wahington
Chair and Discussant: Yoshihide Soeya, Keio University, Japan
The most critical transformation in East Asia has to do with the rise of China. Japan is struggling to cope with this fact, and its manifold implications. Popular discourse often suggests that these two mammoth actors are on a collision course with each other. But what exactly is the reality of the Sino-Japanese relationship? On what basis might it progress peacefully? How might it also turn explosive? This panel provides a survey of the critical forces that are likely to affect the stability of the Sino-Japanese relationship in economics, politics, and security. It focuses specifically on the concrete motives and actions of key actors – the Japanese government, corporations, and other non-governmental actors – that are involved in determining the patterns of conflict and cooperation across these critical issues. The goal is to gauge the ways and extent to which these actors are using legal, institutional, and diplomatic tools to consciously forge a Sino-Japanese relationship that will take the two countries forward in the new century.
Japan and China: Reluctant Rivals
T.J. Pempel, University of California, Berkeley
This paper will examine the recent shift in Japanese-Chinese relations. Once amicable and heavily focused on economic ties, the bilateral links turned sour at the turn of the century. Japan, worried over the 'rise of China' and the implications for its ties to the U.S. and its previously unchallenged role as Asia's leader, began to shift toward a more diplomatically and militarily confrontational posture. China, at about the same time, seeking to exert greater regional influence and long critical of Japanese influences, was equally willing to allow relations to deteriorate. This paper will examine the shift and explore the ways in which economic and security relations have traded off.
The Future of Japan-China Economic Relations
Saadia M. Pekkanen, University of Washington
The Sino-Japanese economic relationship is one of the most pivotal for a range of Japanese industries, particularly those competitive ones which benefit from continued engagement with China. Since their economic interests are generally at odds with the Japanese government’s political coolness towards China, understanding their motives and behavior is especially necessary for uncovering future patterns of economic competition and cooperation among the two Asian giants. This paper examines the fact and realities of their economic integration with greater China, with a focus on trade and investment flows. It shows how the concrete interests of Japanese industries are critical to forging a cooperative legal and institutional economic relationship with China that may supersede the more antagonistic political one.
The Future of the Sino-Japanese Energy Relationship
Kent E. Calder, Johns Hopkins University
China's energy demand continues to grow rapidly, with global implications as oil and natural gas imports steadily increase: China has accounted for over one third of the increase in global oil demand over the past five years. Japan, also a major energy importer, but without major local reserves, is in both a competitive and a symbiotic relationship with China with respect to energy. This paper will explore both the cooperative and competitive dimensions of the Sino-Japanese energy relations, in both their economic and geo-political contexts.
The Intensified China-Japan Security Dilemma in East Asia: The Limits of Hegemonic Stability
Xu Xin, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan
As the U.S.-Japan alliance has been continuously undertaking significant transformation under the Bush and Koizumi administrations, China’s security perception of Japan appears to turn increasingly negative in recent years. Unlike the conventional American realist view that the continuing U.S. military presence in Japan will alleviate the security dilemma in East Asia, leading Chinese security analysts have openly expressed their serious concerns about Japan’s growingly assertive security posture within the framework of the strengthened U.S.-Japan alliance, particularly in terms of Japan’s pronounced involvement in the theater of the Taiwan Strait. In contrast with a best-ever U.S.-Japan relationship in history, China-Japan relations have hit a historical low since the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries, manifesting in a number of problems including reinforced historical mistrust, exacerbating territorial disputes, deteriorating mutual public opinions, growing political animosity, and most of all, intensified security dilemma. This paper examines the recent trends in China-Japan security relations in the context of the strengthened U.S.-Japan alliance, and argues that the U.S.-led hegemonic stability anchored on the strengthened U.S.-Japan alliance plays only a limited role in maintaining regional stability at the age of dynamic and contested transformation of regional and global affairs. A more constructive approach to managing great powers relations beyond the realist paradigm is not only desirable but critically essential to ensuring peaceful change in regional order and beyond.