Session 120: Getting to Rapprochement over Kashmir: Implications for India, Pakistan, and China: Sponsored by the South Asia Council

Organizer and Chair: Anita M. Weiss, University of Oregon

Discussants: Husain Haqqani, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Stephen P. Cohen, Brookings Institution

Keywords: Kashmir, rapprochement, conflict resolution.

The rift that has existed between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has resulted in profound economic, political and human tragedy over the past 57 years. The reverberations from this impasse affect far more than the political economies of the two belligerent states. When India and Pakistan stood hardly a breath away from a nuclear confrontation in the high mountains of Kargil in July 1999, more than just global diplomacy appeared poised at a crevasse.

The frightening reality of potential nuclear confrontation, however, is only one dimension of this conflict. Resounding economic fallout has resulted from both states diverting resources to their respective militaries instead of into their respective economic promise. Political repercussions have run deep, affecting local and national politics in each state, alliances and stability throughout Asia, and the global web of terrorism.

Over the years, there have been various efforts initiated by both sides, as well as by external forces, to resolve the conflict. Things finally appear promising as representatives from both states have publicly declared that they are pledged to rapprochement while China and other countries are actively engaged in trying to facilitate the impending dialogue. Yet there are no concrete proposals laid out to discuss alternatives to the status quo and hence emerge from the existing quagmire.

This panel critically addresses the prevailing national versions of the Kashmir conflict, the myriad concerns regarding getting to rapprochement, and promotes a dialogue that considers existing realities as we evaluate potential options to bring about resolution of this conflict.

Resolving the Kashmir Dispute: Blending Realism with Justice

Rifaat Hussain, Quaid-e-azam University

The unresolved Kashmir dispute has been the single most important source of tension, crisis and wars between India and Pakistan since their emergence as independent entities in 1947. Following their overt nuclearization in 1998, the Kashmir dispute has become a nuclear flashpoint between the two feuding neighbors. While making South Asia the most dangerous place on earth, the Kashmir dispute has also posed a huge challenge for those involved in conflict resolution. This paper describes and reviews different options, prescriptions and solutions that have been put forth to help resolve the Kashmir dispute. While evaluating these options, it draws upon John Rawls’ "difference principle" as the key element of a workable solution. The principal policy implication of this perspective is that status-quo-based solutions have to be discarded in favor of those that would make a qualitative difference to the plight of the Kashmiri people. This in turn would require a fundamental rethinking in the extant Indian and Pakistani standpoints and a recognition by each that they need to work together to qualitatively transform the dynamics of the India-Pakistan security complex centered around the Kashmir dispute.

Kashmiris and the Indian State: History, Politics, and Future Possibilities

Chitralekha Zutshi, College of William and Mary

The question of Kashmir is inextricably linked to inter-state relations between India and Pakistan, and to an extent, between these two countries and China. However, the issue has another, equally important dimension: the more than decade-long insurgency of Kashmiris in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir against the central government of India. This paper discusses this rather neglected aspect of the Kashmir crisis and argues that a lasting resolution to the Kashmir problem depends not only on continuous Indo-Pakistani dialogue on the issue, but equally significantly on "sustained engagement" between Kashmiri representatives and the Indian State with a view to readdressing Kashmiri grievances. This will not only increase Kashmiri confidence in the Indian state, but is perhaps the only way that India can convince Pakistan of its sincerity in addressing Kashmiri concerns in the Indian part of Kashmir, which, in turn, will have a salutary impact on resolving the Indo-Pak deadlock on the issue.

The paper delves into the history of the relationship between Kashmiris and the Indian state from the dawn of independence to the present. More specifically, it discusses the vagaries of the relationship between the National Conference and the central government, and more recently, the attempts at a dialogue between the Hurriyat Conference and the Bharatiya Janata Party as well as the extent of the willingness of the recently elected government at the Indian center to continue this dialogue. Finally, it considers the impact of the talks between Kashmiri representatives and the Indian state on Indo-Pakistan relations.

China and the Kashmir Problem

Jing-dong Yuan, Monterey Institute of International Studies

China’s declared positions on the Kashmir issue have always appeared to be a function of Beijing’s South Asia policy on the one hand, and its specific bilateral relationships with New Delhi and Islamabad on the other. In the 1950s when China and India enjoyed a period of friendship and amity, it endorsed an Indo-Pak bilateral approach to solving the dispute. As Sino-Indian relations soured, culminating in the brief 1962 border war, Beijing began to demonstrate its support of the Pakistani position that called for a United Nations sponsored referendum. Since the late 1970s, as China and India gradually normalized their bilateral relationship, Beijing’s position has shifted to one of neutrality. This paper seeks to place China’s Kashmir policy in historical perspective and examines its assessments of the latest round of Indo-Pak rapprochement on this issue. In particular, the paper will look at how the changing geo-strategic landscape in South Asia and China’s evolving relationships with the two key South Asian players since the 1990s affect its stakes in either the resolution or continued impasse of the Kashmir imbroglio. The paper argues that despite the apparent changes over the last five and half decades, an underlining principle that has guided China’s Kashmir policy has always been one of avoiding unnecessary entanglement in the protracted and seemingly intractable conflict between the two South Asian nations. Beijing’s declared position at any particular time has been by and large tactical to advance China’s broader geo-strategic interests in the sub-continent. However, Beijing may have a heightened interest in facilitating reconciliation between New Delhi and Islamabad since the stakes are much higher now that the two countries are nuclear armed and a potential military confrontation would have a severe negative impact on China’s security.