Organizer: Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, University of Pennsylvania
Chair: Samuel S. Kim, Columbia University
Discussant: Gaye Christoffersen, East-West Center, Honolulu
Many policymakers and scholars anticipated a new era of economic cooperation in Northeast Asia after the end of the Cold War. They envisioned a vibrant economic system in which Russia, China, Japan, and the two Koreas would rapidly increase their trade with one another, pour investment across each other’s borders, and deepen their efforts at technical cooperation. Obviously, this idealized world did not come to pass. Nevertheless, the region has still witnessed remarkable growth in the level of commercial and financial interactions. While researchers have highlighted the economic factors that condition economic dynamics in Northeast Asia, they have paid much less attention to examining how political and especially domestic political factors shape these dynamics in both positive and negative ways. The diverse body of scholars assembled for this panel, including two from Russia, offers papers that help to fill this analytical and empirical gap. By incorporating the role of domestic political variables in their analyses, these papers shed new light on the factors that impede and contribute to bilateral and multilateral international economic cooperation in the region, illuminate the changing dynamics of center-periphery relations in Russia and China, and clarify the ways in which international economic issues can become part of the domestic political agenda in capitalist and communist states alike.
Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, University of Pennsylvania
China has been one of the most enthusiastic supporters of the Tumen River Area Development Program (TRADP), a unique and ambitious multinational economic development venture in Northeast Asia that includes, as primary participants, Russia, China, and North Korea as well as Japan and South Korea. To date, scholars have produced useful narratives of the history of the program as well as analyses of China’s economic interests in the program and the economic factors that have shaped China’s involvement in the TRADP. Yet to be adequately considered are the international or domestic political factors that have shaped China’s interests and participation in the program. This paper assesses the explanatory value of a number of previously ignored or insufficiently considered political variables including the activities of local and provincial actors, China’s regional development strategy, and China’s security and prestige interests. This assessment will contribute to a fuller understanding of China’s participation in the TRADP as well as the factors that affect multilateral economic cooperation in Northeast Asia.
Vladimir Portyakov, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
Russia’s approach to the TRADP has been rather contradictory. Despite official agreement on Russia’s participation in the TRADP, the Governor of the Maritime Region Evgeniy Nazdratenko expressed numerous objections to the project. Even the "Russian Far East Long-Term Development Programme up to the Year 2005" which was adopted by the Russian government cites the TRADP as a possible obstacle to profitable cargo transportation between Asia and Europe via the Trans-Siberian Railway. The main reason for local government displeasure with the TRADP is that the realization of the TRADP’s objectives would give Moscow more effective control over economic life in Maritime Region. Economically, the TRADP is well suited for Russia and the Russian Far East. The project gives Russia an opportunity to play a stronger and more active role in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation than such proposals as the "Japan Sea Ring" or the "Yellow Sea Ring." Furthermore, it should stimulate an inflow of foreign investment into the Russian Far East. For Russia to profit fully from the TRADP, the Russian government has to improve the investment climate and the legal environment in the Far East. It is also critical that it smooth tensions with the Maritime Region.
Tamara Troyakova, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladivostok
Reforms of the Russian and Chinese economies, relative openness along the Russian-Chinese border, and changing relations between Moscow and the remote territories of the Russian Far East have transformed the area. As a result of the increased openness of the Russian Far East, many territories are pushing for a more direct and active role in two prominent socio-economic spheres: (1) international regional cooperation efforts such as the Tumangan River Project; and (2) Sino-Russian bilateral relations, particularly with respect to the massive and illegal Chinese migration to the Russian Far East which, coupled with the growth of cross-border interactions, has raised the concerns of local authorities and Russian residents. The case of the Maritime territory is interesting because of the anti-Chinese position of the local administration headed by Governor Evgeniy Nazdratenko. The Governor used the threat of Chinese expansion in his struggle with Moscow for economic privileges and soft taxation policies. The Maritime administration began to take measures, implementing local regulations to limit and control Chinese influence. Local politicians will continue to press for their home area’s interests. Nevertheless, future developments depend on the center’s policy towards the regions and the promotion of federalism in Russia.