Organizer: John R. Bowen, Washington University
Chair: Michael Aung-Thwin, Northern Illinois University
Robert Cambria, Cambria Consultants
From the Bay of Tonkin to the South China sea, Vietnam is potentially rich in oil and gas. Interest in Vietnam's energy resources grew when in 1974 Royal Dutch Shell and Mobil struck oil in the White Tiger field off the coast of the then republic of South Vietnam. After liberation, in a joint venture with the USSR, more potential sources of oil and gas were found even in the Red River Delta.
Owing to Vietnam's war in Cambodia and lack of technology and wherewithal to exploit its energy resources, Hanoi could not begin developing its energy sector. However, with doi moi, economic reforms have attracted capital from abroad to speed up the country's economic development. Oil and gas resources are the area which draws most foreign investment, and according to Hanoi's own projections such infusions of capital will accelerate rapid economic growth.
For foreign oil companies, public and private, in the region and Europe and the USA, Vietnam is a source of reserves which will lessen reliance on OPEC countries. For its ASEAN neighbors assisting exploitation of such reserves allows them to tie Vietnam into an economic network which brings Hanoi's interests into harmony with theirs. Yet, such potential riches are a source of tension with China, its powerful neighbor to the north, whose presence has since millennia defined the notion of what is Vietnam.
Oil and gas have a further attraction for modernization of one of the world's poorest countries, as well as to strengthen the hold of one of the few, remaining Communist parties in power in the world.
Nguyen Minh Thang, University of Washington
Even though national production has achieved remarkable results in recent years, the high population growth rate of around 2.2%-2.3% per year since 1990, with TFR around 3.8 children per women, is one of reasons eliminating an improvement in the standard of living. The environment and development in a number of various aspects-economics, health care, education, etc.-has been heavily pressured by a speedily increasing population.
In turn, the socio-economic development during the Vietnam's tremendous transition and new world order has significantly influenced demands for children in Vietnamese society in many directions.
High fertility levels and attitudes on demands for more children, mainly in rural areas and more highly in the Mekong river delta in south Vietnam, showed little hope in terms of the considerable fertility decline in coming years, even though the family planning program would be improved greatly.
That does not rule out the need for effort regarding the family planning program. Moreover, the population and family planing program needs to be improved and focused on generating further awareness and the attitudes of people regarding the preferred number of children and family size as soon as possible, so that the population structure could be positively changed by the year 2000, in order to create a fundamental to remain a maximum level of fertility decline after 2000.
In addition, based on the updated survey data and prospective for changes in terms of demand for children in Vietnam, I have produced the updated projection for population growth up to the year 2000. This study also address the national policy and main measures to achieve the target of reducing TFR down to 3 children by the year of 2000 and to a replacement level by 2015.
Ngoc (Angie) Tran, University of Southern California
Recent writings on Vietnam have been claiming optimistically that Vietnam has the potential to become yet another tiger in the Asian Pacific region. It seems natural that given the success of the East Asian Newly-Industrialized Countries (NICs), Vietnam would try to learn if it can replicate that experience.
Given specific circumstances in Vietnamese political economy which is shifting from a very high level of state intervention (a centrally-planned economy) to a lower level (a more market-oriented system), the relevant questions to pose are: to what extent can the Vietnam state learn from the experience of the East Asian NICs? Given the role of the "developmental state" in these economies, can the Vietnamese state play a similar role? What are the necessary conditions for effective state intervention in a more open socialist economy?
In order to address these questions, this paper will examine the relevance of the developmental state framework to the case of Vietnam. Specifically, it will use examples from the Vietnamese Textile and Garment Industry (VTGI) to illustrate the arguments and key issues faced by the Vietnam state in making the transition since the late 1980s. The VTGl is chosen because: first, it is a major job creator and a foreign exchange earner, and it has the potential to be integrated with the rest of the economy; second, the VTGI fits into the overall pattern of the textile and garment industry's global sourcing, and hence can demonstrate how well Vietnam faces new challenges.
In terms of organization, this paper will first present the developmental state framework and specifically the model of the East Asian NICs. Second, it will apply this model to Vietnam, and discuss to what extent the Vietnam state can learn from the experience of the East Asian NICs. Finally, this paper will provide an illustration of the role of the Vietnam state, from the developmental state framework, in the case of the Vietnamese Textile and Garment Industry.
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